The crude mentha oil market has exhibited a consistent upward trend since mid-February, characterized by a notable surge in early March followed by a recent decline. This surge was primarily fueled by speculative activity, further amplified by the announcement of the suspension of advance authorization for Menthol import on March 7, 2024. The suspension of advance authorization reflects a commendable initiative by the Government to curb unethical practices prevalent among well-known exporters. The scheme had been exploited for importing low-cost synthetic menthol, leading to its dumping in the Indian market and adulteration in exported Menthol, Cornmint Oil, and Peppermint Oil. While this measure may not entirely eliminate the import of synthetic menthol, it is expected to impact its availability in the domestic market, thereby driving up demand for natural alternatives. Despite a significant slowdown in demand over the past year, the onset of the new financial year heralds a positive outlook. Factors such as heightened consumer awareness, the suspension of advanced licensing, and the emergence of new demand patterns are anticipated to contribute to improved volumes in the current year. However, considering the crop situation, a decline in crop acreage compared to the previous year is anticipated. Potential yield fluctuations due to weather or other factors could result in a substantial supply shortfall in the upcoming year. Additionally, the crop situation, coupled with diminishing inventories in China, may create a market vacuum post this year's harvest season. The timing of this vacuum's impact on triggering a price rally remains uncertain. Nonetheless, the current price levels pose sustainability challenges for farmers, prompting them to explore more lucrative crop alternatives. Therefore, a market correction appears inevitable unless higher-yielding varieties are introduced. Given the aforementioned factors and the significant involvement of speculators in the mint market, it is advisable for customers to establish realistic target prices and procure materials accordingly, regardless of whether it is before or during the harvesting season. This strategic approach will enable stakeholders to navigate market volatility effectively.