MARKET REPORT

Orange


Orange production in Brazil is currently facing significant challenges stemming from the spread of greening disease and unfavorable weather conditions. Greening disease, caused by bacteria transmitted by an insect called psyllid, affects all citrus plants and was first detected in Brazil in 2004. It poses a severe threat to orange orchards as infected trees experience reduced fruit production, with adult trees potentially losing up to half of their yield. Currently, greening disease is present in 38% of the orchards in São Paulo, the country's largest producer of oranges. As a result of greening disease and other factors such as adverse weather conditions, the upcoming orange harvest is expected to be 2.2% smaller compared to the previous year. The largest production region, which includes São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro, anticipates a decrease in production, which could have significant implications for both domestic and international markets. This decrease in supply has led to a substantial rise in orange prices, particularly for pear oranges, which have experienced a staggering 32.58% increase in price over the past 12 months. The rise in prices reflects the reduced availability of oranges in the market. Moreover, climate change exacerbates the challenges facing orange production in Brazil. The lack of rainfall and high temperatures during critical growth stages have further impacted production levels. This adverse weather pattern not only affects the quantity of fruit but also influences its quality. The current forecast suggests that the 2023/24 harvest will see a decline in both orange and orange juice production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture highlights the impact of unfavorable weather conditions during the second flowering of orchards, resulting in a lower fruit yield. In response to these challenges, some producers are adjusting their farming practices. They are investing in lower quality oranges from diseased plants to maintain revenue levels. Others are exploring alternative regions for cultivation, such as areas known for soybean production like Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, which are free of citrus disease. Additionally, farmers are adapting their irrigation practices to compensate for decreased rainfall during critical growth periods. Looking ahead, there is uncertainty surrounding the future outlook for orange production in Brazil. Experts anticipate that the challenges posed by greening disease and adverse weather conditions may persist, potentially leading to further decreases in production levels. The full extent of these challenges will become clearer in the coming months as the next harvest progresses. Overall, the current situation underscores the vulnerability of Brazil's orange industry to various environmental and biological factors, highlighting the need for continued research and adaptation within the sector.
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