MARKET REPORT

Red Sea Update: ‘New normal’ mode activated


As we enter the third month of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels, the outlook for a resolution to the ensuing conflict looks further away than ever. Major container carriers are looking into a mid-term scenario where East-West transit times will be affected by the inability to utilise the Suez Canal and, instead, is forced to transit via the Cape of Good Hope. Accordingly, most carriers have now adjusted schedules 100% to fully reflect the Cape of Good Hope routing, which also allows for a more precise analysis of the exact additional transit time compared to transit times before the conflict broke out. As one example, in the case of Hapag Lloyd, the transit time prior to the Red Sea conflict on the service from Shanghai to Barcelona was 36 days, the revised and newly published schedule on the same service now shows 47 days and, accordingly, an extended lead time of 11 days due to routing via the Cape of Good Hope. The re-routing of container ships affects not only the Europe-Asia trade lane but also has repercussions on other global trade routes. As vessels are redirected, there could be a redistribution of shipping capacity and changes in market dynamics, affecting freight rates and service levels across multiple trades. With this we see carriers implementing additional surcharges (cost recovery) on other trades, disconnected from the Red Sea or Cape of Good Hope routing as well. The extended transit times and potential delays at ports can disrupt supply chains, impacting inventory management and production schedules.
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